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US Midterm Elections 2026 — Odds & Smart-Money Bets
Every Polymarket market for US Midterm Elections 2026 with whale activity: live odds (implied probabilities), volume and Insider Score. Click an event to see who is betting on what.
61 events$13.3M whale volume
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- 2026 Balance of Power228 whales$4.8M
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?156 whales$1.4M
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?192 whales$1.9M
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?77 whales$318k
- Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?36 whales$132k
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?9 whales$123k
- Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?16 whales$49k
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?38 whales$442k
- Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?6 whales$20k
- Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?69 whales$806k
- Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?5 whales$20k
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?46 whales$211k
- Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?27 whales$194k
- Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?35 whales$294k
- Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?2 whales$5k
- Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?30 whales$147k
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?41 whales$227k
- Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?54 whales$577k
- Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?30 whales$272k
- Will Trump say "Democrat" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?2 whales$6k
- Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?17 whales$90k
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?13 whales$113k
- Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?4 whales$16k
- Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?13 whales$54k
- Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?10 whales$115k
- Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?25 whales$89k
- Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?21 whales$223k
- Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 3%-6%?2 whales$4k
- Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?10 whales$51k
- Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?13 whales$52k
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 0%-5%?2 whales$4k
- Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?3 whales$14k
- Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?10 whales$29k
- Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?7 whales$14k
- Will Republicans win white voters in the midterms?3 whales$10k
- Republican Senate odds hit 50% by October 31?4 whales$11k
- Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?3 whales$14k
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?12 whales$112k
- Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?2 whales$3k
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028?3 whales$8k
- Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?4 whales$23k
- Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?2 whales$3k
- Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?14 whales$55k
- Osborn flips Ricketts for Nebraska Senate by November 2?3 whales$9k
- Will the Democrats win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?3 whales$6k
- Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?10 whales$63k
- Senate control favorite on November 2?2 whales$9k
- Will Democrats sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?3 whales$8k
- Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Arizona?2 whales$2k
- Will Trump say "Healthcare" during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?2 whales$4k
- Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?2 whales$11k
- Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms?2 whales$9k
- Will Trump say "Corn" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?2 whales$10k
- Will Marina Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?4 whales$15k
- Will Helder win the most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?2 whales$7k
- Will Bia Kicis win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?4 whales$29k
- Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?2 whales$5k
- Will Pedro Paulo win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?2 whales$3k
- Will Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?1 whales$10k
- Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?4 whales$13k
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